Democrats may not have figured out how to react to today’s surprise John McCain veep pick of Sarah Palin.
If they pillory Palin, they risk provoking a sympathetic backlash. Voters can figure out whether they like her. Many may as she is not a conventional choice.
Dems may want to cut the moose jokes. Most people couldn’t or wouldn’t drop a moose and find it a bit exotic that she can.
People may like her age, so calling her young and inexperienced may blunt the inevitable charge that her experience is thin. Obama knows that a lack of experience in Washington is seen by many outside the beltway as a positive.
She’s been a governor for about two years while Tim Kaine’s experience as governor is a year more. Sure Kaine was also mayor of a much larger city, but her approval ratings in Alaska are much higher than his in Virginia.
Finally, whether people argee with her or not on social issues, her life experience is interesting. Some voters may vote issues, others may decide based on experience but Dems may risk much by pounding away at her while promising a new and higher tone to politics.
McCain’s pick may help us climb to that higher level, if the political class is smart. Besides, she’s a better shot than the current veep.
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One of the students in the Sorensen Institute’s College Leaders Program class of 2008 sent a fascinating email to the rest of the class today, noting that former Delegate Dickie Cranwell is considering a bid for lieutanant governor in 2009.
Matthew Ogren noted to his 29 fellow classmates that Cranwell acknowledged in a news story that he is mulling such a bid.
The piece by Peter Vieth in Virginia Lawyers Weekly states, “Meanwhile, another lawyer may venture into the statewide elections next year. Former Del. C. Richard Cranwell confirms that he is considering a bid for lieutenant governor. Currently chairman of the Democratic Party of Virginia, Cranwell served for 30 years in the House of Delegates. He practices with Cranwell, Moore & Emick in Vinton.”
“If he runs, Cranwell will face Southwest Virginia businessman Jon Bowerbank, who is actively campaigning and has raised more than $220,000 for his bid for the 2009 Democratic lieutenant governor nomination. Jody W. Wagner, secretary of finance under Gov. Tim Kaine, also has been mentioned as possible lieutenant governor contender.”
Vieth, in his fine report on Delegate Steve Shannon, D-Fairfax County, running for attorney general, did not note that Wagner is leaving the finance secretary job with that goal apparently in mind.
Cranwell, of Vinton, is one of the stronger floor debaters and strategists the Democrats have had in the House of Delegates in the past 30 years. He was redistricted out of his seat seven years ago by the GOP majority, just as George Allen had been by Democrats (from the 7th District congressional seat) in 1991.
Sometimes, redistricting comes back to bite the crafty hand that draws first blood.
]]>Jeff E. Schapiro, ever colorful and never shy to express a point with personal panache, has pronounced Gov. Tim Kaine an increasingly lame duck, thanks to the state’s, and not Kaine’s, constitution.
While implying quacks in quotes ascribed to Kaine, Schapiro points to a more real reason that reaching a transportation compromise is harder than selling gas-tax increases to voters: the state’s current redistricting system and its fruit can make GOP legislators more afraid of a little electorate in June than a bigger one in November.
As Schapiro put it, “Republicans created, in effect, minority districts wherein narrow bands of the electorate, often anti-tax conservatives, have disproportionate influence. The key to winning and holding such House seats: sucking up to the right. It’s not always a pretty sight, but survival compels it.
And it’s not just accommodating the grass roots to prevent nomination challenges. Republicans must kowtow to the House leadership, lest they risk such punishment as losing prized committee seats. Senate Republicans, many of them recovering tax-aholics, have become similarly sheepish.”
I guess my question for people who might prefer a change becomes, “If you want November to count more than June as a way to promote the ability to compromise, what changes to redistricting are truly both positive and possible before 2011?”
W&L’s Shepherd Poverty Program is becoming a model for the nation.
One in five students at the university in Lexington, which certainly has its share of rich kids, studies poverty.
Harlan Beckley, a religious studies professor when he founded the program more than a decade ago, became concerned about the growing gap in this country between rich and poor.
W&L’s poverty program has caught the eye of U.S. Sen. John Warner and of fellow Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., who intend to secure grants for the program and to help create a poverty studies consortium of 10 universities across the country along the lines of the Shephard Program model.
This small school in Lexington has a wonderfully long reach. Its 2008 graduates, who took their degrees Thursday, are a wonderful class of young men and women who value and practice civility, know a thing or two about honor and intend to do something about poverty.
One of the more interesting public television documentaries produced in Virginia this year airs Wednesday night, May 28, at 8 p.m. on WCVE-TV Richmond and WHTJ-TV Charlottesville.
Read all about it in a Richmond Times-Dispatch commentary piece:
http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/opinion/commentary.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2008-05-25-0105.html
The documentary airs again in Richmond and Charlottesville on June 4 at 10 p.m., by which time the Sorensen Political Leaders Program Class of 2007 will be stars!
As I am only in my fifth week at the Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership at the University of Virginia, I had nothing to do with the making of this documentary but am proud of it nonetheless!
]]>To “swift boat” a candidate is a verb that gets more and more use in our political culture today.
The practice is hardly the exclusive preserve of Chris LaCivita and the GOP.
Democrats do it to each other, according to a distinguished political scientist from the University of Connecticut who retired to Charlottesville.
David RePass, in a post on George Loper’s web site, says that Barack Obama is being “swift boated” by the Clintons. Here is the top of his argument:
“Barack Obama is being “swift boated” by the Clintons. Say what? Let’s first define “swift boating.” It is a propaganda campaign that puts doubts into people’s minds about what actually happened to someone or is happening. In John Kerry’s case, it questioned his abilities as a boat commander and cast doubt about whether his medals were actually earned.
“This was such nonsense that Kerry did not think it would be believed by anyone.
“Before our very eyes this primary campaign season, the Clintons (and their friends among the media commentators) have us taking seriously the following nonsense:
“1) Counting total votes across all primary states is a legitimate method of scoring. This is like saying that the baseball team that has scored the most runs over a season should go to the World Series.
“Baseball is scored game by game; primaries are scored state by state.
“The ONLY way to score points in the primary/caucus process is to win delegates. And then there is the other piece of this nonsense: Hillary does not count states that held caucuses. (But almost hourly we hear someone bring up this “total vote” argument.)
“2) Hillary claims that Michigan and Florida held legitimate primaries and their votes should be fully counted as cast. It would be undemocratic, Hillary says, not to do so (even though these elections were undemocratic, noncompetitive “contests” in which the voters had no way to learn about the candidates – especially the new kid on the block). Also, Clinton argues that many Democratic voters in Michigan and Florida will not vote Democratic in the fall if they are “slighted” by the DNC enforcing its rules. (This assumes that the overwhelming concern of many of these voters will be that they were “slighted” by the national Democratic party and that THAT concern will far outweigh their concerns about such things as the economy, Iraq and health care.)
“3) White, working class Democrats and a great many women will not vote for Obama in the fall. Nonsense. This bogus analysis is based on primary results in which one Democrat is competing with another Democrat. Yes, many among the working class and many women preferred Clinton to Obama in these contests, but that does not mean that they will not vote for the Democrat in the fall. Primary contests between candidates of the same party simply cannot be compared with general election contests between a Democrat and a Republican.
“I am aware of the polls that show a considerable number of Clinton supporters saying that they will not vote for Obama in the fall (and vice versa). This is bogus. In the heat of a current campaign, some supporters (who have just left the voting booth) are going to be so invested in their candidate that they cannot see any other candidate as worthy. However, come November, this intense feeling will have worn off and Democrats will vote for the Democratic candidate.
“4) Hillary claims that there is a crystal ball that predicts that Obama will not be as strong an opponent against John McCain as she would be.
“Again, nonsense. No reputable student of voting behavior has ever been able to find a way to measure voters’ attitudes this far in advance of a (Nov.) election. Again, the results of contests between two Democrats in primaries tells almost nothing about a contest between a Democrat and a Republican in the fall.”
There is more on Loper’s site from David RePass. http://george.loper.org/~george/archives/2008/May/925.html
Do you agree?
Two of the better blogging conferences I’ve attended were in Charlottesville a few years back and were sponsored by the Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership at the University of Virginia.
Virginia political bloggers of all stripes and shades, and yes, even a few stars, attended and spoke with each other in the flesh. This offered opportunities for friendships to flourish and for greater understanding of each other as well as of the interesting topics discussed.
Now that I’ve landed at Sorensen as executive director and just finished my first month on the job, I wonder if Virginia’s enhanced ranks of political bloggers would like to do it again.
I also wonder what bloggers would like to talk about at such a gathering, were we to sponsor one. Please let me know what you think, either below or at Sorensen. We could even invite a few politicians who blog (and maybe a few who could and don’t know it yet). Thanks.
Paul Harris, a Northern Virginia Republican who served two terms in the House of Delegates from Albemarle County until 2001,
has decided not to run for attorney general next year.
Harris said that in recent weeks there were times “when I thought maybe I can do this and make it work.”
He decided however that 2009 was not the right time.
His eldest child, P.J., just turned 17 and is a senior in high school next year and “I just couldn’t stomach not being there,” he said. “It’s been a very prayerful time for me and lots of folks have been very supportive of me in helping me make this decision.”
Harris may take a position in the John McCain campaign, he said of his continuing political activity this year.
He left the House of Delegates in 2001 to taker a position in the Bush Justice Department and now is in private law practice.
Harris explained his attorney general decision in an email to friends.
It reads in full: “Dear Friends,
“I have decided not to seek the office of Attorney General of Virginia in 2009. This difficult decision encompassed more than political dimensions, reaching into areas faith and personal values.
“Over the past several months, I have heard with my ears and embraced with my heart the earnest and well-meant pleas of ‘this is your time’. Those sincere expressions of support and encouragement refreshed my fondness and appreciation for life on the political campaign trail, as well as my love for the wonderful people of this Commonwealth, from all stations and walks of life. Your support also renewed in me a calling to serve a higher purpose with one’s life, a lesson my mother instilled in me.
“In the end, however, what matters most to me is that I do God’s will. Discerning His will for my life requires patience, and, in this instance, that quite likely means I will have to wait for a period that extends beyond self-imposed, political or convenient deadlines. Even the most courageous and well thought-through decisions in life cannot substitute for obedience to God’s will. But although I must wait, surely it would not be fair of me to impose that burden upon either the nomination process itself or any announced or potential candidate for attorney general. I will not do that.
“In its simplest terms, the joy of spending time with my three children far outweighs any desire I have to be attorney general. I get choked up thinking that my son, Paul Jr., a rising high school senior, will be off to college in the fall of 2009. He is co-captain of his high school wrestling team and placed second in his district tournament this year. No political office could ever substitute for pride that wells up from these three simple words: “I was there.” In those moments when the crowds are gone and I am left alone to my thoughts, I realize in my gut that I am not willing to sacrifice even one spontaneous moment with my children—those instant eternal memories that last for a lifetime—in the name of political ambition.
“Even at the age of 44, I can still feel the pain—the rejection and embarrassment—when, as a young Cub Scout in Den 3, Pack 98, in Charlottesville, I could not participate in the annual father-son project of designing and making miniature wooden race cars, because there was no father in my household. I vowed then that my children would have a different experience. I am where I am today because God blessed me with a mother who was present. She taught me that there are no victims in life, only volunteers.
“In the past few weeks, I have recalled time and again the words of Carl Sandburg, who said: “Time is the coin of your life. It is the only coin you have, and only you can determine how it will be spent. Be careful lest you let other people spend it for you.” My mother spent her coin well, in selfless devotion to her children. I shall try as best I can in my life to do the same.
“Some political assessments hold that this decision might mean I will never serve as attorney general of Virginia or ever again hold political office. If so, I am at peace with this decision nonetheless. Truly, my life has been like one long up-escalator. A designated “at risk” child in grade school, I am humbled to even be considered by many as a worthy candidate for attorney general. That itself is an achievement my mother would be proud of. But she also would be proud of me for choosing to be a good father, even if this happens to be ‘my time’.
“Next year Virginia Republicans will have several outstanding and exceptionally qualified candidates from which to choose a nominee for attorney general. I look forward to joining with our Republican ticket next year and rousing support for the optimistic vision and ideals of our party and its candidates, always standing for and with those whose compelling hope is to improve their modest lot in life.
“I thank all of you who have been helpful and supportive in this decision-making process. I especially thank those who have prayed with me and given me spiritual comfort along the way. To those who might be disappointed by my decision, I hope you will understand and trust my reasons for making this decision and look forward to our continued friendship.
“Finally, in the words of George Washington, Father of Our Country, may we all “labour to keep alive in our breast that little spark of celestial fire called conscience.” And then let us together do what is right for our Commonwealth and her good people.
“With warm personal regards,
Paul”
Jim Richardson, the chaplain of the California Senate, has been chosen as the new rector at St. Paul’s Memorial Church in Charlottesville.
Richardson of Sacramento, Calif., worked 22 years as a journalist before becoming a priest in 2000. He left The Sacramento Bee as senior writer in 1997 after covering politics and writing an unauthorized biography of Willie Brown.
The interim rector of All Soul’s Parish in Berkeley, Calif., as well as chaplain of the California State Senate, he was called by the vestry at St. Paul’s at the conclusion of a two-year search process. During most of that period, the Rev. Alan Mead of Richmond, Va., served as interim rector following the retirement of the Rev. David Poist.
Jim and his wife, Lori, worked together at the Bee for many years. Jim will officially join the staff of St. Paul’s Memorial Church on Aug. 1.
Having spoken with Jim and Lori, I am delighted to welcome them to Charlottesville and applaud their interest in keeping urban chickens.
A Phi Beta Kappa graduate of UCLA in 1975 where he majored in history and anthropology, Richardson entered the Church Divinity School of the Pacific in 1997 and was ordained to the priesthood in 2000.
From 2000 until 2006, he served as associate dean and canon residentiary of Trinity Cathedral in Sacramento. In 2004, he became Chaplain of the California State Senate. For the past year, he has served as interim rector of All Soul’s Parish in Berkeley.
St. Paul’s Senior Warden Virginia Ritchie announced the call of Richardson and his acceptance at services Sunday, along with Alice Fitch and Charles Lancaster, co-chairs of the Search Committee at St. Paul’s, which nominated Richardson at the conclusion of its two-year search process.
Ritchie said that Richardson is “a man of intelligence and warmth, an effective and energetic leader with an infectious sense of humor and a ready laugh, a powerful preacher, compassionate pastor and committed advocate for those in need.”
Bob Marshall said fellow GOP U.S. Senate candidate Jim Gilmore is trying to tally ignore him and pretend he’s won the nomination
“I am the space alien in this race to him,” Marshall said. “I will walk in a room and he will not even look at me.”
“He doesn’t want to admit he’s got an opponent,” said the veteran delegate campaigning as a populist.
“Gilmore and Warner are both part of the establishment,” Marshall said between bites of the bony shad served Wednesday afternoon by the Wakefield Ruritan Club. “I am the anti-establishment guy.”
Marshall said he is being supported for the GOP nomination by “Right-to-lifers, home schoolers, anti-tax people, libertarians and people who are mad at Gilmore.”
Asked which of those five groups of Republicans is the largest, Marshall laughed and declined to respond “on the record,” indicating that each is sizeable but the last group might be biggest.
Dick Leggitt, a longtime Gilmore aide, insisted that the Marshall-Gilmore nomination contest “is over,” saying Gilmore employs consultants who can count the already elected and committed delegates to the May 30-31 Richmond convention.
“We call them and talk to them. We count them,” Leggitt said. “Bob Marshall is a good candidate and we hope he’ll be supporting us in the fall.”
]]>Potential GOP candidates for attorney general are dropping out in pairs.
One day after Del. Rob Bell, R-Albemarle County, said no to a 2009 bid, Sen. Mark Obenshain, R-Harrisonburg, joined him in citing family considerations for not running statewide.
Bell said he and his wife, Jessica, just learned she is pregnant with their second child.
Obenshain cited other family considerations, leaving former Del. Paul Harris as potentially the strongest challenger to the only announced Republican in the field, Sen. Ken Cuccinelli, R-Fairfax County.
Del. Steve Shannon, D-Vienna, appears to be the most active Democrat eyeing the 2009 attorney general’s race.
Here is the text of Obenshain’s statement announcing today that he is not running:
“Over the past several months I have been encouraged to run for Attorney General of Virginia. After great consideration and deliberation, I have decided that I will not be a candidate for that office in 2009.
“To have the opportunity to serve Virginia’s citizens as Attorney General would be a great honor and privilege. It is a job for which I feel well suited by my professional endeavors over the past 21 years and by my public service. I have been encouraged by phone calls, e-mails and comments from friends from across Virginia and for that I am grateful.
“My family is the abiding consideration for me in deciding to forego a run at this time. I have two children in high school, and I am very proud of them. I understand the sacrifices my family would have to make in order for me to seek statewide office at this time, and they are too great.
Thanks to one and all for the encouragement you have provided both for my consideration of a run for AG, and for my service in the Senate of Virginia.”
Del. Rob Bell, R-Albemarle County, said today that he will not be seeking the statewide office of attorney general next year.
“Jessica’s pregnant and we just got our test back,” Bell said of his wife. The two already have a young son, Robbie, and now are awaiting a second child.
“That makes it easy,” Bell said. “I’m not going to run.”
The only Republican in the field as an announced attorney general candidate for 2009 is state Sen. Ken Cuccinelli, R-Fairfax County.
Others examining a GOP bid include Paul Harris, who for four years held the House seat Bell occupies; John Brownlee of Roanoke, the U.S. attorney for the Western District of Virginia; Sen. Ryan McDougle of Mechanicsville; and Sen. Mark Obenshain of Harrisonburg.
]]>I love going through the drawers of a desk that I’ve been using the past 18 years and finding stuff like the April 6, 1991, Daily Progress story: “Remapping plan OK’d by House.”
The old story details how Democrats, who held majorities in the House, Senate and the governorship (although some Democrats questioned the party loyalty of then-Gov. Doug Wilder), used their party dominance to mess up the territory of GOP lawmakers, lumping some together in new districts.
Then-Del. George Allen, R-Earlysville, commented on his new district, saying, “The net effect is I’ve lost Wintergreen and gained Massanutten,” he said of the plan that stripped Nelson County from his district.
The plan drawn by Del. Richard Cranwell, D-Vinton, divided Rockingham County four ways among five GOP delegates and placed Del. Phoebe Orebaugh in the same district with Del. Andy Guest of Warren County.
Cranwell devised four districts taking pieces of Rockingham for GOP Dels. Allen, Pete Giesen, Guest, Orebaugh and Clint Miller.
My story continued, “The House plan creates 11 black-majority seats and has won endorsement from civil rights groups. ... Allen said he will urge fellow Republicans to challenge it in federal court on the grounds that it is overly partisan in the way the Democratic majority lumped GOP delegates together across the state.”
“My advice would be to file suit quickly, within weeks,” Allen said.
Republicans learned a great deal from the Democrats that year and returned all the favors 10 years later, giving Virginians the districts that are still in effect today.
The lesson is found somewhere in the Bible, under, “Do unto others...” Or was it, “Love thy neighbor...”
As Paul Goldman would say, “Politics ain’t beanbag.” Or perhaps Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran would offer, “We won’t Cranwell you if you don’t Wilkins us and let’s work out the kinks with seven bipartisan souls.”
]]>For the first time in the history of the world, some ads run on a pair of Arab TV networks may have an impact on a Charlottesville to Danville congressional race.
Tom Perriello, the Democrat challenging 5th District Rep. Virgil Goode, R-Rocky Mount, helped raise money in 2004 to pay for ads on al-Jazaara and al-Arabiya that featured the comments of American religious leaders who apologized for the torture of some Iraqi citizens held in prisons by Americans.
America was showing moral leadership in the ads, according to Perriello. The ad text read: “As Americans of faith, we express our deep sorrow at abuses committed in Iraqi prisons. We stand in solidarity with all those in Iraq and everywhere who demand justice and human dignity. We condemn the sinful and systematic abuses committed in our name and pledge to work to right these wrongs.”
The Danville Register & Bee quoted a Baptist preacher in that community as saying the use of torture techniques on prisoners could be useful to save lives.
The Danville story by reporter Bernard Baker also quoted a retired Episcopal minister who supported Perriello’s effort and said he is the kind of person needed to undo the damage the Bush administration has done to the nation and America’s international reputation.
The story quoted Goode as saying he would not spend money on Arab television networks. This is far from the last that voters in the 5th will hear about these ads.