By Bob Gibson

There is little like a redistricting opportunity to focus the minds of a political party on a set of 100 Virginia House of Delegates elections.

Republicans say they have never run as many candidates for the House of Delegates as they are fielding this year.

Democrats, who have 72 House candidates—a full 13 fewer than the 85 Republicans running across Virginia, say they still expect to gain seats in the Nov. 3 elections. Republicans aren’t so sure.

Whichever party controls the House in 2010 and 2011 has a major say in the redrawing of all 100 House districts following the 2010 Census, so the numbers of uncontested seats in the 2009 House elections are way, way down.

Both parties have recruited more challengers than in recent election cycles. Plus, a number of surprise open seats have also popped into the mix, giving Virginians this fall probably the most expensive set of House elections in the state’s history.

In 2005, only 49 of the 100 House seats featured elections with at least two candidates.

In 2007, only 41 of the 100 House elections were contested.

This year, candidates for contested House seats are off and running in 70 districts and in every region of the state.

The power of redistricting is so strong that even with better party recruiting efforts—and the healthy increase in contested seats—this year’s set of elections still leaves 30 delegates in such uncompetitive districts that no challenger decided to try to unseat them. 

At least places in Southwest Virginia and from Danville to Dumfries and Delaplane to Dayton have two-party competition where there were fewer contests two and four years ago.

Republicans, who control the House and appear unlikely to lose their majority, have been the most active recruiters.

The GOP has done a better job of fund-raising. Republican candidates entered July with a total of $4.46 million in cash on hand compared with $2.88 million for Democrats.

Campaign finance reports show that 85 Republicans, 72 Democrats and 24 independents or members of smaller parties are seeking House seats on Nov. 3, increases that Virginians of all political stripes should applaud if they believe that political competition is a good thing.

Open seats due to retirements have made races more interesting in Staunton, Arlington, Halifax, Fairfax and Prince William. An open-seat race that could be ripe for a party turnover is in the Prince William district of retiring Del. Jeffrey M. Frederick, R-Woodbridge.

Yet Democrats counting on a pickup there are hard pressed to find the net gain of five other seats they would need to take a House majority. For one thing, Democrats fielded only 20 challengers to sitting House Republicans while the GOP fielded 24 candidates challenging incumbent Democrats.

Strategists in both parties call a six-seat gain by Democrats and a resulting shift of party control of the House possible but unlikely.

Republicans contend that they are likely to pick up a few seats in Virginia Beach and Northern Virginia. A gain of even two seats by the GOP would leave Democrats farther behind in a quest for majority statu.

A number of potentially tight races have involved expensive campaigns in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties in Northern Virginia plus the Hampton Roads, Danville and Charlottesville areas.

The 58th District race between Del. Rob Bell, R-Albemarle County, and his Democratic challenger Cynthia Neff around Charlottesville has become one of the state’s most expensive contests.

Bell, who has been airing political ads on television since early August, had raised more than $672,000 entering September while Neff had raised $148,689 and had about $84,000 in cash on hand. Bell led the state’s House candidates in cash on hand with more than $570,000 in the bank entering September.

Some other contests also are likely to come close to, or exceed, the million dollar milestone.

They include Republican Barbara J. Comstock’s challenge to Del. Margaret Vanderhye, D-McLean; Democrat Robin Abbott’s challenge to Del. Phillip A. Hamilton, R-Newport News; and Democrat Gregory A. Werkheiser’s bid to unseat Del. David B. Albo, R-Springfield.

Not all the 70 contested elections are likely to be close. A number of challengers are lightly funded and face entrenched incumbents.

Thirty House incumbents have free rides. Twenty 20 Republicans, nine Democrats and one independent drew no challenger on the Nov. 3 ballots.

Unopposed incumbents are not a rare breed in Richmond. Many incumbents have the advantage of better name recognition and often have a district that the once-a-decade reapportionment process has left heavily weighted with voters who support their political party.

The U.S. Supreme Court has opened the door in a Texas case to allowing states the option of redrawing legislative districts more often than once every 10 years, as Texas was allowed to do.

In effect, states are no longer required to wait 10 years to redistrict. Virginia, where Republicans hold power in the House of Delegates, and where Democrats hold most seats in the state Senate, could conceivably join Texas in the highly partisan political game of redistricting when one party gains a clean sweep of the House, the Senate and the governor.

In other words, if redistricting stays highly partisan in the Old Dominion, there is a chance that the next party to take control might not choose to wait 10 years until the Census numbers roll in again to take advantage of their next trifecta majority to redraw the lines of House and Senate districts.

They could do what Texas Republicans did under President George W. Bush and redraw congressional district lines while they are enjoying the status of legislators empowered to choose their own voters.

Nothing is certain, or permanent, about Virginia’s politics.